Montag, 28. März 2011

Top Ten Ways that Libya 2011 is Not Iraq 2003 | Informed Comment

http://www.juancole.com/2011/03/top-ten-ways-that-libya-2011-is-not-iraq-2003.html
Posted on 03/22/2011 by Juan

Here are the differences between George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the current United Nations action in Libya:

1. The action in Libya was authorized by the United Nations Security Council. That in Iraq was not. By the UN Charter, military action after 1945 should either come as self-defense or with UNSC authorization. Most countries in the world are signatories to the charter and bound by its provisions.

2. The Libyan people had risen up and thrown off the Qaddafi regime, with some 80-90 percent of the country having gone out of his hands before he started having tank commanders fire shells into peaceful crowds. It was this vast majority of the Libyan people that demanded the UN no-fly zone. In 2002-3 there was no similar popular movement against Saddam Hussein.

3. There was an ongoing massacre of civilians, and the threat of more such massacres in Benghazi, by the Qaddafi regime, which precipitated the UNSC resolution. Although the Saddam Hussein regime had massacred people in the 1980s and early 1990s, nothing was going on in 2002-2003 that would have required international intervention.

4. The Arab League urged the UNSC to take action against the Qaddafi regime, and in many ways precipitated Resolution 1973. The Arab League met in 2002 and expressed opposition to a war on Iraq. (Reports of Arab League backtracking on Sunday were incorrect, based on a remark of outgoing Secretary-General Amr Moussa that criticized the taking out of anti-aircraft batteries. The Arab League reaffirmed Sunday and Moussa agreed Monday that the No-Fly Zone is what it wants).

5. None of the United Nations allies envisages landing troops on the ground, nor does the UNSC authorize it. Iraq was invaded by land forces.

6. No false allegations were made against the Qaddafi regime, of being in league with al-Qaeda or of having a nuclear weapons program. The charge is massacre of peaceful civilian demonstrators and an actual promise to commit more such massacres.

7. The United States did not take the lead role in urging a no-fly zone, and was dragged into this action by its Arab and European allies. President Obama pledges that the US role, mainly disabling anti-aircraft batteries and bombing runways, will last “days, not months” before being turned over to other United Nations allies.

8. There is no sectarian or ethnic dimension to the Libyan conflict, whereas the US Pentagon conspired with Shiite and Kurdish parties to overthrow the Sunni-dominated Baathist regime in Iraq, setting the stage for a prolonged and bitter civil war.

9. The US has not rewarded countries such as Norway for entering the conflict as UN allies, but rather a genuine sense of outrage at the brutal crimes against humanity being committed by Qaddafi and his forces impelled the formation of this coalition. The Bush administration’s ‘coalition of the willing’ in contrast was often brought on board by what were essentially bribes.

10. Iraq in 2002-3 no longer posed a credible threat to its neighbors. A resurgent Qaddafi in Libya with petroleum billions at his disposal would likely attempt to undermine the democratic experiments in Tunisia and Egypt, blighting the lives of millions.

http://www.juancole.com/2011/03/top-ten-ways-that-libya-2011-is-not-iraq-2003.html

14 Kommentare:

  1. The question is: Were the riots and unrest in Libya really the popular demand of the people or are these fueled by outside forces who orchestrated everything from the very beginning along with other uprisings in the Middle East?

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  2. The powers that be are not that strong. Consider how much smaller paid crowds stuffed with unclothed policemen were in Libya.

    You cannot orchestrate movements of the size that we're seeing. However, this book is said to have had a lot of influence, if 'orchestrating' is taken to mean 'winning the argument': http://www.aeinstein.org/organizations98ce.html

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  3. Sorry, should be plain-clothed. As you were.

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  4. haha

    Think again. This is the same force that is capable of building hundreds of underground bases all across the globe behind our backs and unbeknown to everyone else. This is the same force that owns most of the media. This is the same force that owns most of our banks. This is the same force that owns public opinion. This is the same force that threshes out misinformation and disinformation on a daily basis.

    What could be stronger than that?

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  5. It might just be that I have personal involvement. I have Egyptian family, so have responded with more empathy for the people throughout the region, and less cynicism towards those who might be able to help.

    However, I don't think that I have changed that much. I don't think that Arabs are fools to propaganda, and find the arguments that they are puppets implausible. Also, I really do think that there are differences with the Iraq invasion: In place of a judgement of the people's 'true' interests; a heartfelt plea.

    In my view, radical skepticism is distorting the analysis. The analysis is an a priori one along the lines of 'all intervention is imperialist, therefore this is'.

    I am not saying that there is no danger that it will turn imperialistic, but that calls for ordinary skepticism.

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  6. my "immediate" comment would be this:
    What about the Ivory Coast?
    What differentiates Libya from Yemen or Bahrain?

    for example.

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  7. I suppose that I am looking at this more from the Arab side than the American. Of course there are other compelling cases, and the motives for intervention are mixed. However, to look exclusively at motives is an extreme, neo-Christian position.

    it is my belief that good can come out of this particular intervention, especially if the West do not try to (counter-productively) fix what happens next. I may well be proven wrong, but I do think that Juan's ten reasons make a difference.

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  8. That is the puzzling part. I am looking to our near history there and into Western (or Eastern) interventions and do not see any good having come out of those.

    What I see here is a very long lasting civil war, splitting a country, sustained animosities and instability.

    Instead, I suggest (if the West is REALLY well intended) to offer stipends to young man and women to study in the west.

    Compare the cost of sponsoring one college student to that of one fighter jet, or one day's of cost of the war.

    By now, ALL of -say- Libya's young influential generation would have been enlightened.

    Just do the arithmetic.

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  9. Actually, I like your idea. The trouble is that it should have occurred sometime in the past. Unfortunately, lack of foresight leaves us with the current mess.

    Regarding intervention, the West has a history of attempting to demand repayment for intervention. If that can be avoided, then perhaps there is hope for a system to arise that while not favouring the West, is not opposed to it either. Perhaps it can find a way other than neo-liberalism, while being democratic and non-oppressive? With large oil revenues, this is not pure fantasy.

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  10. I doubt that interventionists will be able to claim much, because the revolt is about self-determination. They would be better not to ask.

    It is my view that the scenario that I painted isn't in fact the best for Libya. However, I do get the impression that something like it is what the Libyans would want - one thing that has kept Qaddafi in power is generousity with oil revenues. I am just saying that it is an option for them, if they can get real autonomy.

    One thing that is interesting is how the politics of intervention is playing out. For example, in the UK, the deputy PM, Nick Clegg, has said that the end result should be up to the Libyan people, whereas some Tories outside the cabinet disagree.

    While it is true that many on the right consider democracy to be merely a mechanism for choosing a leader, I do get the impression that there is a change of thinking.

    Because there is a correct course, I do not believe that we should act as if it were unattainable. However, we do need to be clear that any support for intervention is conditional upon a mediocum of ethics. Such an approach would, in any case, be in our own interests.

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