Reading between the lines: BBC Analysis: Titanic clash for Iran's future

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8108065.stm

Iran investigates 646 poll complaints

By Jon Leyne BBC News, Tehran The opposition is said to be trying to become more organised The crisis over the Iranian election has developed with such dizzying speed it is hard to take in the implications.(...translation: "Even I had no clue such a thing was brewing") Until barely two weeks ago, anti-government demonstrations were unheard of.  ...and were unthinkable. Now the opposition routinely turns out hundreds of thousands of protesters on the street every day. ...whoever this opposition is must be powerful. Now the foreign media are operating under some of the most sweeping restrictions in the world. ...duh! So where is this crisis going, and what do the opposition want? ...translation:"please allow me to think loud, since I have no clue myself" 'Not open challenge' For the moment, the demonstrators have just one demand - a re-run of the election they believe was won by the opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi. ...Mousavi must have thought he was going to get it; and now is trying to salvage whatever it can. Ayatollah Khamenei has publicly supported President Ahmadinejad When they chant "death to the dictator", they do not say who they mean. But the suspicion is they mean not just President Ahmadinejad, but also the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. ...who's suspicion is that? I take our reporter is thinking louder to invent a plausible scenario. Nevertheless, this is not an open challenge to the system, at least not yet. ...translation"don't fancy that Iran will turn secular. But, in case it does, I want to have my ass covered by pointing out the 'not yet' part" The women in the demonstrations do not take off their headscarves, for example, even though many detest being forced to wear them. ...I hate this term: 'many'. What does that mean? Among the 100s of thousands of demonstrators there is more than one woman who detest? Two? I had a physics teacher who would mock us when we would refer to 'many'. He would say, 'there are some primitive tribes who count: one, two, many'. And what exactly signifies them, the 'many'(!), still wearing their head scarves? In ALL Muslim countries, women have been wearing a headscarf for eons. Before the Mullahs and after. Ah! But had these many women protested the headscarf mandate, then our reporter would have concluded that 'many' (some?) yearn for a Western style regime. Ahha. And then we could be hopeful... Alas, even those many do not take their head covers off. How disappointing...? And the demonstrators chant "God is Great" to stress that they are just as religious as supporters of the government. ...it is a well known 'cover your ass' disclosure so that your opponents can't call you a heretic. Otherwise, if you give them any such opportunity, you are done with anyway. For example, even if it were a demonstration for a regime change, say for secularism, they still would emphasize that. Otherwise, the gov't could easily agitate "True Believers" to hack down these infidels...(!) Widespread arrests Foreign ambassadors are called in, one after the other, and given a dressing down for even daring to criticise the shooting of demonstrators. ...that is what those ambassadors are for, no? "Don't dare to use these to your own ends. We are watching you. Otherwise, after we take care of the unrest, we'll get ecen with you!" Meanwhile, the authorities have been sending out their thugs, the "Basijis" - members of the government militia - in a blatant display of intimidation. ..."You've got YOUR dogs, we have got ours...". Based on my observations, those "Basijis" are simply volunteer thugs, not militia in any sense of the word. I had lived through (survived is a better word) that scenario in the back country. Student dormitories are ransacked. ...back then, our dormitories were ransacked not by basijis, but by UNIFORMED POLICE, who not only ransacked but also threw a few students out of the backony to their deaths. Ooops, sorry, they JUMPED themselves off the 4th floor, according to the reports.   And widespread arrests have now stretched as far up - to include the man who was one of the closest aides of Ayatollah Khomeini, Ebrahim Yazdi. ...Ahha, there we go. He was. A long time ago. He fell out of favor. So, he has been scheming to grab the power. Bastard. Lock him up! So far there has been no decision taken for a really sweeping crackdown, though that may come sooner rather than later. ..."Let us first weigh the opposition's power. They got us by surprise. Hence, first know thy enemy. Once they expose themselves sufficiently, we will get them. Muhahahaaa!" Deep rivalry Meanwhile, a separate power play is going on at the top of the political system. ...what separate power play? It is all one. There is NO separate power play. Former President Rafsanjani is backing the opposition Ayatollah Khamenei has many cards in his hand. ...he better have them... He is the supreme commander of the armed forces...so was the Shah. He is also loyally supported by the Guardian Council...we all are accountable to some body eventually. His time to explain his laps to the Council (board of directors?), which is reviewing the election result. Until now , no-one ever dared question his authority - at least openly. ...since our reporter hardly has a clue of what the heck is going on, he re-iterates what he had been reporting so far, yet, admits that he has no clue on what is going on at those levels. But on the other side is former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who has been backing the opposition campaigns. ...DUH! As the election began, it became clear he wanted revenge against President Ahmadinejad, who beat him in the presidential election four years ago. ...tsk tsk tsk. Revenge? That is a primitive behavior. Revenge will get you nothing. He wants his power back! If he wanted to have "rewvenge", he would have his wife (wives?) kidnapped, gang raped, and photographed...THAT would be a revenge. And there is probably a deeper rivalry with the supreme leader himself, whom Mr Rafsanjani helped to power when he succeeded Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989. ...our reporter is making this up by attaching a 'probably': "I really have no clue, but way back in 1989 they were buddy-buddy." The rivalry really erupted when President Ahmadinejad accused Mr Rafsanjani's family of corruption during one of the televised presidential debates. ...now he is talking about some useful bit of info. Why would a candidate accuse a non-candidate with corruption? ummm... because he is behind the opponent? It is an accusation many Iranians might suspect is true, ...a phrase of absolutely no content to it: many?... 1,2, many. might? Equally, might not. suspect? Not even confident? I have NO doubt about  ANY politician's corruption. The only differentitor is the size. The less competent politicians manage smaller corruption, the 'better' ones shovel it. That exactly sets apart successful politicians from the fools...  but the manner in which it was made caused outrage. ...the manner? Manner in politics? Naaah. It is NOT the manner, it is the opportunity to use it as propaganda for his own cause. Mr Rafsanjani wrote an unprecedented letter to the supreme leader, calling him to act, and issuing a remarkable threat. ...BIG MISTAKE. You do not threaten your boss if you are competing for a promotion: "Look Mr Director, if you do not promote me to the position of Manager of Public Relations, I'll make you suffer". No no no. You will find yourself out on the street. If nothing was done, "the volcanos fed inside burning chests will appear in society, as exemplified by gatherings we have seen in streets, squares and universities"....some more tid-bit of insight. He openly said the he will take his supporters out to streets. Mr Rafsanjani has some powerful tools. ...hmmm... let's read on. Our reporter may actually know a few things. He heads the Assembly of Experts, the body of clerics in charge of electing, supervising and dismissing the supreme leader. For them to take action would indeed be unprecedented. But Mr Rafsanjani recently won re-election with a big majority. And Ayatollah Khamenei has many enemies amongst the clerical establishment. ...junk. Mr Rafsanjani also heads the Expediency Council, which mediates on disputes between other organs of government. Not to mention his almost legendary wealth....it is getting more interesting! Do not underestimate the fervour of supporters on both sides. There may be government supporters encouraged or bussed to demonstrations, but there are many who also genuinely adore Mr Ahmadinejad. ...junk. And for the opposition, the disputed election has unleashed years of frustration over a system that prevents them from meeting their aspirations. ...junk. They may be arguing over a disputed election. But they are really arguing over the future of the country. A momentous, titanic struggle, whose outcome no-one can predict. ...a dramatic junk.

Addendum: Year 2007. Place Turkey. (Photo: People wave national flags as they fill the waterfront during an anti-government rally on May 13, 2007 in Turkey's western coastal city of Izmir. Thousands of secular Turks gathered in the city of Izmir on Sunday to protest against the Islamist-rooted government in a rally organisers hope will unite the opposition ahead of elections in July.