Do you think there will be a war, or any kind of military confrontation between Iran and the West, any time before 2020?
Yes
No
Yes
7
No
3
World news on the Iranian nuclear issue and their alleged threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, seems to indicate today that things are cooling off. I wanted to post something on this, because I'm betting Mossad are getting busy while everyone's attention is on the US Congress' vote on their online piracy bill, trying to legislate on something they don't even own. More on that elsewhere... this post is to remind you what goes on while we're not looking.
Iran have recently dropped the US dollar and warned American and British military to back off the Strait, but in general I'd be wary of skewed reporting in western press, which can easily be manipulated to support the case for a 'pre-emptive strike' on Iran's non-existent nuclear weapons program. Times of India reported just over an hour ago that Tehran say they're ready to engage in six-party talks, but the US deny this. Ehud Barak says any attack on Iran is 'far off'. Wen Jibao defends Chinese oil trade with the Persians in the face of western sanctions. Iranian Interior Minister is due to visit Russia, and trade is on the increase between Iran and Turkey, who insist on IAEA talks. So it does look as if the warmongers are going to be disappointed. For now.
I have one simple question. We know that a 'covert war' is already underway, with the politics of sanctions, the assassination of a fourth Iranian nuclear scientist, widely thought to have been a Mossad hit, and of course the cyber-terrorism of Stuxnet. Troops moved en masse to Israel last month and the Saudis have just bought lots of new F16's. I'd be very surprised if Special Forces were not on the ground inside Iran long ago... so we see, the preparations for an all-out military confrontation are taking place, but there lies my question...
Q: Do you think there will be a war, or any sort of military attack on Iran, this decade?
Please stick to just yes or no. The question is whether there will be a military manifestation of some of the things that are already being done to Iran, whether shots will be fired in the Gulf, a ship sunk, the Strait of Hormuz closed or nuclear sites bombed. Regardless of your wishes as to whether or not this happens - do you think it will? Feel free to elaborate on your reasons, in the replies...
What about regime change? The 2009 Green revolution didn't go the Empire's way, but there's always next time?
AntwortenLöschenThere's a stubborn will to bomb them, and also a strong opposition, world wide. I think it's impossible to predict which of them will force through. And yes, the small happenings that change everything....
AntwortenLöschenAyatollah Wotsisname would have to be a complete farking lunatic to pick a fight with those who stand against. Which makes me notice two things...
AntwortenLöschen1) Reminds me of when Saakashvili in Georgia thought John McCain had his back, and ended up getting a kicking from Russia. Could the Ayatollah make a similar error of judgement, thinking China is behind him?
2) I read only last week that the first 4 countries into Iraq were the US, Britain, Australia and Poland. Why not Israel?
And regarding Chinese or anyone else's dependence on Iranian oil... as Gooch has said in the last week... KIng Abdullah must popular right now! I noticed when compiling this, PressTV's lead story this morning is about anti-royal protests in Saudi Arabia...
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president, has accused the country's hardline religious leadership of deliberately provoking a confrontation with the West to weaken his position ahead of forthcoming parliamentary elections.
AntwortenLöschen[will enlarge in a new window/tab]outstanding maps (Persian Gulf - Gulf of Oman)
Payvand Iran News ... Is Iran legally permitted to close Strait of Hormuz to countries that impose sanctions against Iran's oil? By Bahman Aghai Diba, PhD International Law of the Sea
If it is to happen it will be after the US election and if a different president is elected, it is likely to be an Israeli raid before the inauguration in January next year when the new guy will slap them on the wrist and say don't do that again while signing trade agreements to supply even more weapons to Israel to stop the Islamic aggressors... it happened at the last election just like that towards Palestinians in Gaza.
AntwortenLöschenAs for who is backing Iran and who would stand up for them in that eventuality, that is more difficult to know. The reason is the lack of transparency in the politics of the region, cutting away the saber rattling and public noises, you have the position of Saudi Arabia as an example of how difficult the balance is there. The Saudis are against the Iranian regime and would love it to fall, but they also distrust and despise Israel. Currently, they are in bed with the Americans who blindly support whatever the Israelis want. To say things against Israel is to jeopardize the relationship with America, but to not do so would damage their standing in the Islamic world. if you then add in Russia and China as well as the rest of the Muslim world, that becomes a mess. Add to that the holy nature of Jerusalem in the three main faiths involved in the Middle East Crisis and whoever does anything to damage there would be rounded on by religious fanatics from all sides. So any counter strike would have to be on an Israeli city away from that place, maybe Haifa or Tel Aviv.
Your question about Israel not being involved in Iraq has to do with the huge pot of hatrid there is from agitators in the Islamic world who would see any military move from Israel on a Muslim country as a rallying call for all Muslims to attack the Jewish state. That kind of conflagration would not have been in the US oil companies interests so they pressured the US government to keep Israel on a tight leash.
Iran know that to launch a nuclear raid on Israel would be suicidal for the regime, if (and it is still a big if) they are wanting to get nukes it is to shift the balance of power in their favor politically as to use such weapons would be unthinkable even to their religiously warped minds, however, if they felt cornered or under threat, there is no telling what their fanatics would do... I hope we are a long way from that.
... at all ? I've wondered about the UAE, or anyone exporting out of the Gulf. Kuwait can't be happy. Qatar have money too, which means influence. The Strait is not only Iran's TO close... I think it's a western intelligence-media invention, just like 'al Qaeda' was. Iran have probably never said anything like as stupid as threatening to close the Gulf to their 'enemies'.
AntwortenLöschenHow would we know? Where do you get your news? Do you read Entekhab? Xinhua? Russian? That's a rhetorical question. I doubt 99% of the shit I'm going to read about Iran in the next few years will be true.
Ofcom have revoked PressTV's broadcasting license in the UK...
AntwortenLöschenhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-16652356