Samstag, 30. Januar 2010

Dragon In the Room

Here's a story that won't go away,
though it is studiously ignored by both parties for extended periods of time.  It refuses to simply fade away into the past.

 
We have too many lessons already showing us how unwise it is to meddle in other nations' civil wars.  In the case of China and Taiwan we cannot just apologize and change our policy because we, in effect, created and protected a separate nation that for many years proclaimed itself as the only legitimate China. 

I clearly remember listening to the Kennedy-Nixon debates, in which both candidates swore to support and defend the islands to which the losers of the Chinese civil war had retreated.  The political climate in 1960 would have made it difficult for either to dissent from that position.

From 1955 to 1980 the US had a formal agreement:

the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty,

designed to prevent China from completing its revolution and reclaiming its island, which was born out of de facto intervention by Truman, related to our other intervention in Korea and general Cold-War attitudes.  The Taiwan government was no more democratic than the mainland communists, and executed and imprisoned some 140,000 of its people for suspected disloyalty.  But during the time the US continued to officially ignore reality, Taiwan grew from a refuge to a significant industrialized nation, and more recently a democratized one.  This has made it nearly impossible, or at least undesirable, for the US to try to undo a diplomatic mistake.

Each time we ship promised military equipment to Taiwan it is a refreshed reminder of a policy conflict between the US and China, and there is an increasing need to harmonize US-China relations as China grows economically and a number of issues call for cooperation.  Fortunately, China has shown restraint in pressing for a resolution, though they do remind us there is a problem.

The issues surrounding Taiwan call for a great deal of careful thought and, when the time comes, negotiation.  The solution may not please everyone involved.


12 Kommentare:

  1. The US and China have fought several proxy wars since the Nationalists fled to Formosa. Sixty years, and Taiwan abides.

    I think those islanders are hoping that China overlooks them in favor of a port/base in Africa. It's about trade routes, and commerce. And the biggest merchant marine fleet in the world.

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  2. The Beijing regime can be tremendously obtuse at times. The Taiwan issue is an example of what happens when political rhetoric overwhelms practical common sense. For many years, Beijing recognized both East and West Germany; currently it maintains relations with both Koreas. But when it comes to their own backyard, they cannot accept that right now there really are two Chinas. This renders "realpolitik" difficult.
    Taiwan has also been obtuse, for many years publishing maps of a Kuomintang China (Taiwan) that included Mongolia and parts of the Soviet Union, Burma, and India. The pro-independence Green Coalition recognized the absurdity of this, but kept title to Quemoy and Matsu, which all sides agree are part of Fujian. Nor did they offer to return the National Palace Museum to Beijing.
    I do not foresee a peaceful re-unification until the economic and political conditions on both sides of the Taiwan Straits come to resemble each other much more so than they do now.l

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  3. these stories of super powers misshaping the map exist all over the place ,Africa is a classic example where the natural borders where changed for political ones as straight lines on the map resulting in many wars between dominant parts of the population against foreign neighbors who found themselves isolated in foreign territory,The Netherlands managed to isolated a whole race of Moluccas who ended up without a country in Asia,All through history foreign meddling has left a trail of blood.

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  4. political rhetoric is right the facts are America needs China and China needs America so let them talk

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  5. Thank you for this good article and also thanks to all good comments above.
    After all, a few words remained for me to write. I may say, according to the sentence i've put in quoatation mark above, you've put your analysis on the basis of meddling other nation's civil wars.
    But, this is not the case for most of the time. Civil wars are usually initiated by CIA, KGB, MI6 or so...
    They make civil war in other nations in order to take the advantages of it with no care about how many innocents will be killed and how disasterious outcome will that country will come up with.
    And here:
    US and CIA have no pitty to Taiwanese. CIA is using that poor Taiwanese as a bargaining tool to put on the table against China.

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  6. Exactly right byderule !
    And that is not meddling, but mere making war and difference to rule.
    Britain was the worst among all those dominators while the Netherlands, France, Spain and some other European countries are also responsible for bloodshids. Germans were lucky that their lands were not beside the sea or oceans, so they couldn't travel by ship to dominate Africans and massacre them.

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  7. The recipe is very easy,nations or different people are naturally divided by mountain ridges,rivers or coastlines,Which are easily defined and defended,They can remain more or less at peace.
    Comes along the bigger conquistador,who changes the borders to straight lines on the map ignoring the natural borders,Now smaller parts of one nation find themselves basically isolated in foreign lands ,propaganda ignites racial or cultural hate,and the big often (in Modern times) white father helps(this is a bad word) the 2 sides with arms,violence erupts,,In the neighboring country whose people are now being killed across the NEW border ,revenge causes more killing with the other side´s people (some of whom are also isolated by the shifting borders),The end result is great for the greater power who now have less people to deal with that breathe the air or could object to them pillaging their natural resources .
    The CIA ,MI5, UN may be instrumental in Modern times ,before that with the colonies,but this principle has been going on for ever,
    Dont waste your own soldiers but let the people kill each other.
    Cecil Rhodes was a master at this.

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  8. Today there are more Chinese Citizens in Nigeria, than there ever where English in Nigeria. The spread of Marxism, Maoism etc has always been more about introducing conflict than an intellectual pursuit.

    May all your wars be foreign....

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  9. 1.) The Kuomindang map of "China" was not like the European division of Africa. The Kuomindang map was imaginary.
    2.) That there are Chinese in Nigeria is far more about OIL than about Marxism, Maoism, or any other political ideology.

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  10. 1.) The Kuomindang map of "China" was not like the European division of Africa. The Kuomindang map was imaginary.
    2.) That there are Chinese in Nigeria is far more about OIL than about Marxism, Maoism, or any other political ideology.

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  11. Well, the German Empire got a few massacres under their jackboots before they lost WWI. Their colonial rule in Togo, Cameroon, Namibia, Tanzania (minus Zanzibar), Rwanda, Burundi, New Guinea, and Micronesia was noted for its efficient suppression of "native" independence.

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  12. Good friends all,

    I understand the US military has quietly increased its military forces on the African Continent. Does anyone know more about this?

    as ever...

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